A weather prediction

[Rusty2]

Have you every noticed new workings on termites nests ?
Over the last 10 years I certainly have and after noticing it a number of times decided to take a note when I saw them .

I assumed the new workings meant rain , but how much rain ?
The most notable weather event I noticed afterwards was a flood .

After watching the termites for years it would appear that around 12 weeks after the initial addition to the termites nest we got a flood . But it wasn't always precisely 12 weeks and varied . The last 2 times I noticed it , it WAS around 12 weeks . Localised flooding at the minimum .

Considering how dry things are at the moment I've been looking for any change in our local nests and on the 15th December I saw my first one for the year . I drove past this nest the previous day and there was nothing .

So my prediction is , around mid March the south east of N.S.W will have , at the very least , localised flooding .

I have contacted a termite "expert" but he won't reply till January .
What I'd like to know is what triggers them to build ?

I'd love to know if you've noticed them and would encourage everyone to keep an eye open and to take a picture and post it here . Take a note of when it happened and we'll see what we'll see .

[Dion]

You may get some good answers from an indigenous person Rusty.

[Rusty2]

Yep , the indigenous people would know for sure .

[Yowie bait]

I noticed some termite nests a few weeks ago were bright red with like new soul as opposed to the usual black dry look. I dont know if thats what you mean but it stormed heavy that night and now we have a lot of rain if thats any help.

I reckon like Dion says that some indigenous people or old bushies may be of help to you Rusty. You may be onto something..

[Rusty2]

Hi Yowie bait ,
Interesting to hear about your local termites . I wouldn't know what the redness on your local nests mean or "weather" that has anything to do with rain . : )
I was referring to new dark lumps on the nests like in the picture above .

Although termites aren't ants , ants display similar behaviour .
The little black ants scurry around before an afternoon storm . Larger ants build those small volcanoe looking nests which I've noticed means rain but not immediately . If you could keep an eye on them when you pass by it would be an interesting little project we could find out for ourselves instead of relying the weather man .

[David]

I did notice some repair work a month ago at Deua. It was as dry as can be down there. Swamps marked on the map as permanently wet were just dryed out paddocks of dead? Sphagnum moss. I believe there is a fire somewhere there now.. I don't think there has been any precipitation since my visit. Maybe it's on its way?

[Rusty2]

Now that's a nest ! : )

I don't think it's necessarily a repair (unless it's been damaged) , I think it's more like spending resources .

They know moisture is coming so they spend some of what they have and put on a new edition to the nest for what ever reason .
What ever it is or what ever is happening I'm pretty sure we'll be getting a flood around March .

[AL Pitman]

Like all living creatures when under duress , reproduce to extend their species both flora and fauna ..

[Yowie bait]

Hi Yowie bait ,
Interesting to hear about your local termites . I wouldn't know what the redness on your local nests mean or "weather" that has anything to do with rain . : )
I was referring to new dark lumps on the nests like in the picture above .

Although termites aren't ants , ants display similar behaviour .
The little black ants scurry around before an afternoon storm . Larger ants build those small volcanoe looking nests which I've noticed means rain but not immediately . If you could keep an eye on them when you pass by it would be an interesting little project we could find out for ourselves instead of relying the weather man .

Thought id mention it Rusty. Only thought about it when you posted this. Maybe the weather people should look at the natural signs as the gear theyre using is often wrong.

Hopefully nature dont get too confused with the weather systems but they seem to be doing ok. Storm birds showed up a few weeks ago and we got rain here. Theyre not always right though!

[Shazzoir]

The actual termite colony is underground though - the above-ground 'mounds' that we see are their ventilation systems.

Termites create a fair amount of body heat and their heat signatures help to find them in modern homes and yards.

Their mounds are porous, and the gases and heat of their living passes up and out of the nest via them. Some types of termites create air tunnels, which work like a whirlybird fan on top of a shed; air is drawn in at ground level, takes heat with it and rises, to be vented out of the mound at the top and sides, thereby cooling the nest.

Adventitious building may be in response to damage, or to improve the air flow of the mound, but as the indigenous folk know, new additions to termite mounds often mean a change in the weather, predominantly that of arriving rain. Perhaps the termites know that hotter weather = the rainy season, so improving air flow particularly if it's wet, may cut down on fungal diseases in the colony. Just my thoughts, anyway. They have been known to grow fungi in the colony to break down cellulose, but maybe there are good and bad kinds.

Cheers
Shazz

[Rusty2]

Sorry for the late reply , got caught in the fires . Unfortunately lots of people around my area lost their homes .

Thanks Yowie bait , I can't imagine that insects get it wrong and also can't imagine scientists throwing away their weather models for a termites nest . My money's on the termites . : )

Thanks for the info Shazzoir , my university taught cousin told me on Saturday much of what you've written here . Amazing !
I mentioned the flood hypothesis to him and he said you might want a scientist with an open mind . I guess we'll find out for ourselves .

Hi Al , you think it's all just natural stuff , no coincidence ?

[Wingnut]

G’day Rusty, you may have something there with the early warning system. A bit early but at least the rain has come.

[Rusty2]

Hi Wingnut , I'm positive it's an indication of floods and yes it's early . I have had a number of differing outcomes but it's usually 12 weeks .
Having said that , we've had some nice rain (41.4mm) but we haven't got any flooding yet . It may come tomorrow or Monday .

[Rusty2]

So we had around 140mm of rain on the 10th and 11th of February and I was 4 weeks out with my prediction .
I have no idea why , still trying to figure things out .

[Rusty2]

This morning I was driving to town to get my groceries and noticed another new working .
After driving around to see other nests in the area there were 4 nests that also had new workings .
In 2013 we had a flood mid March . A couple of weeks later I saw new workings again and wrote down the dates and outcomes .

On the 31st March 2013 I noticed new termite workings .
On the 20th April 2013 Rained heavy all day , east coast low . 3 weeks .

So here's another prediction . If the observation in 2013 is anything to go on we SHOULD get another flood early March or in around 20 days .
Pictures below of todays nests .

2.jpg

1.jpg

[Rusty2]

For anyone who's interested , we did get 51mm of rain over the 4th and 5th of March , this caused localised flooding .

There's definitely something to it .

[Rusty2]

The termites are at it again .
The picture below (Termites 1) was taken on the 15th of September but I'm not sure how long it had been active and I'm assuming it was a week or so .
The picture called Termites 2 was taken last weekend and it was around 40 kilometres away from the first picture .
The most common amount of time between termite workings and an actual flood is 12 weeks .
So , if my hypothesis is correct , then the far south coast should get a flood late November/early December .

[Shazzoir]

Pretty sure you're right, Rusty; an El Nina weather system has been identified as forming now, and that cyclic weather system means more rain and cyclone activity. Termites and animals have ability to know what's coming in a way, whereas we puny 'civilised' folk are so far removed from the natural world ans its cycles as to be almost blind to what the 'lesser creatures' can detect.

[Rusty2]

an El Nina weather system has been identified as forming now

So it's on then , the beginning of another cycle . You could feel it in the air at the start of the year , we noticed it at work , something changed .

Termites and animals have ability to know what's coming in a way, whereas we puny 'civilised' folk are so far removed from the natural world and its cycles as to be almost blind to what the 'lesser creatures' can detect.

You got it Shazzoir , it's a shame really .
I did notice someone on here a while ago mention that insects change their song when there's a change coming .