Yowiehunters Forum

Tuesday, 19 December, 2017
New York, United States

James Rickards

Bitcoin, stock bubbles, gold, Fed interest rate decisions, global recovery, and emerging markets debt problems dominate financial discussions today.

Which of these is the most important?

The answer is, ‘none of the above’.

The most important financial or geopolitical issue in the world today is a coming war between the U.S. and North Korea, probably in the next twelve weeks.

How can I be so sure about the timing? The Director of the Central Intelligence Agency told me.

In a private conclave in Washington DC on October 20, 2017, CIA Director Mike Pompeo told a small think tank group (including me) that it would be imprudent to assume it would take North Korea more than ‘five months’ to have a reliable arsenal of nuclear-armed ICBM missiles. These could strike U.S. cities and kill millions of Americans.

Five months from October 20, 2017 is March 20, 2018. That’s an outside date but the war will likely begin before then.

That would create an element of surprise — and avoid the surprise of a faster than expected deployment of strategic weapons by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

Why can’t the U.S. just live with a nuclear
armed North Korea?

We managed to live with a nuclear armed Russia and China during the Cold War.

We relied on deterrence, containment, sanctions, diplomacy, and eventually arms treaties to avoid a nuclear war. Why not do the same with Kim?

President Trump’s National Security Advisor, General H. R. McMaster answered that question at our Washington conclave also.

He said acceptance of a nuclear-armed North Korea is ‘unacceptable’. The U.S. will stop North Korea from acquiring its nuclear capability in the first place rather than learning to live it.

The reasons for this are many. None of the other nuclear-armed powers ever threatened to attack the United States unless attacked first.

North Korea has threatened to attack and destroy the U.S. many times. The best approach for dealing with threats from dictators is to take them at their word.

Adolph Hitler told the world in the 1920s that he would unite Germany, conquer Europe and kill Jews. He did so in the 1930s and 1940s.

Osama bin Laden declared war on the United States in 1996 and again in 1998. In 2001 he attacked New York and Washington and left thousands of Americans dead in Manhattan, Virginia and Pennsylvania.

When Kim Jong Un says he will attack the United States with nuclear weapons, it is reckless to believe otherwise.

There will not be a war with North Korea.
All the blustering is Kabuki politics and distraction.

Trump calls himself the Master of the Deal, what you are seeing serves two purposes... distraction using the age old favourite, fear.
... and positioning for bette negotiating positions.

Mr Rickards is blatantly wrong hen he declares 9/11 was a result of Bin Laden's declarations and wrong again when he uses the Hitler analogy.

Sounds like the 'think tank' Mr Rickards attended was predesigned to 'think' a certain way to me.

Hey Wolf

I thought exactly the same thing about his statements about Hitler and Bin Laden.

I wonder what Rickards agenda is re his war statement. Would not info like that be a matter of national security.

About 2-3 months back Rickards stated that he had sold up all his Bitcoin and bought into Gold because he had info BTC would die. BTC value has increased about 300% since then. Seems like some of the info Rickards puts out is politically or otherwise motivated.

Trump is a sideshow clown, shepherded into office to distract the media from whatever the hell is really going on over there.

I'm not even sure most of the American public give a toss about him or what the Republican Party are doing. Those that actively dislike Trump seem to be a vocal/influential minority.

Gore Vidal said it best during Obama's first election campaign - "I'd like to think he's a good man, but if someone needs an extra ten million dollars to fund their campaign then they'll make whatever deal they have to in order to get that ten million dollars".

All of them, no matter what their public persona might be, are just the same. Obama might be slick and presentable, Trump might be a loudmouth, Bernie Sanders might remind you of your Grandfather, but all of them want the same thing; power.

Simon M wrote:Trump is a sideshow clown, shepherded into office to distract the media from whatever the hell is really going on over there.

I'm not even sure most of the American public give a toss about him or what the Republican Party are doing. Those that actively dislike Trump seem to be a vocal/influential minority.

Gore Vidal said it best during Obama's first election campaign - "I'd like to think he's a good man, but if someone needs an extra ten million dollars to fund their campaign then they'll make whatever deal they have to in order to get that ten million dollars".

All of them, no matter what their public persona might be, are just the same. Obama might be slick and presentable, Trump might be a loudmouth, Bernie Sanders might remind you of your Grandfather, but all of them want the same thing; power.

Sorry, but I have to disagree. Trump is NOT like the others. Yes, he may be a loudmouth. Yes, he may be part of some really stupid foreign policy decisions.
But the shear unbridled frustration of the controlled mainstream media at his presidency indicates he is truly a threat to the establishment. And anyone who thinks he is part of the republican establishment is way off track. The rhinos fight him harder than they do the democrats... contributing ZERO $ to his campaign and three times the amount to defeat 'trumpist republicans' than they do to defeat the democrats in elections.

He promised real change and is bringing it despite opposition from both parties. Remember even JFK took a few years to settle in and really start fighting the establishment. Trump has to be patient and wait for enough new senators and congressmen that support MAGA to get elected otherwise he faces a bullet (hence his 'pandering' to the zionists and deep state).

I agree that he's not an establishment Republican, but he's still only a puppet. He's Ronald Reagan nouveau.

Nothing he's doing will benefit the people who don't currently have jobs, or whose local water supply has been changed or re-directed to benefit commercial interests or because of a simple lack of infrastructure (such as Flint in Michigan or Sandbranch in Texas). The people who voted him in will turn on him once they realise Trump cannot bring back the 1950's.

What worries me is that we could get someone even worse in his place. Pence is a frightening figure, and it's long been my belief that the Republicans allowed Trump his victory so they'd be in power. Then all they'd have to do is wait for him to stuff it all up with his big mouth so they could install 'company men' such as Pence. I still think that's their intention.

Mostly agree, but not the jobs bit. In December alone over 250 000 new jobs were created because of Trump policies.

Yes, if Trump had not come along the Republican Party would now be dead. Some 'alt-news' commentators were actually predicting the 2016 elections would be the end of the party, but then Trump came along and it is the democrats who are dying (despite overwhelming bias in the MSM).

The establishment rhinos are dead in the water too, and they know it. I have heard it theorised that Trump has all the 'dirt' gathered from Hillary's server, hacked emails, etc (likely handed to him by the russkies or Assange) but is holding it back as an insurance policy. If he is killed or indicted it will all be released.

The question I have, though, is what kind of jobs are being created?

Like Turnbull's claims about the jobs that will be supposedly be created by the Adani/Carmichael mine and its attendant infrastructure, we don't have a lot of solid info.

I doubt the mainstream media as much as I doubt Trump; neither of them tells the whole truth and both have a self-serving agenda they follow.

Have they created 250,000 jobs in significant areas? Or have they created 250,000 service jobs? What percentage of those 250,000 jobs are full-time, and what proportion of them are casual and part-time? How many people will get an actual career - or even full-time work - and how many will be working for a pittance in casual, menial jobs they cannot afford to ever quit and which will never supply them with a realistic living wage?

I don't trust politicians at all, but America's ethos of 'step on whoever you have to to line your own pockets' is a well established one. I don't think Trump, who inherited all his money anyway, gives a damn about the people he's sucked up to in order to become President. I think he's on an ego trip funded by his inherited wealth - and I think the Republican party saw him coming and decided to use his celebrity to their own advantage. He's expendable to them - useful, of course, but ultimately expendable.

Neither party will fold and both of them are rolling in cash, these 'brink of destruction' stories are yet more fictions the mainstream media creates to add to the 'narrative' and give their overpaid professional loudmouths stuff to discuss on panel shows.

Sorry. rant over.

That's my point, Trump is not a politician.

And it is not inherited money. Yeah sure, he got a million $ loan to kickstart his business but he created his wealth in the dog eat dog world of New York real estate.

The job creation is real, despite what the media claims and refuses to tell us. Trump is 'forcing' companies to return to the US or face high taxes.

There is not a single MSM network/corporation that is 'pro Trump'. Every single one presents a biased agenda, including Fox.

If you get ANY 'news' from ANY of them your opinion on Trump cannot help but be misinformed and biased... Aussie networks included. Having studied, trained and worked in the television news industry I cannot watch ANY TVs news today without getting very angry. Whether geopolitics or local, it is ALL misinformation and outright lies.

I agree with you about the media - but Trump himself is his own worst enemy in terms of how he comes across. He doesn't seem like an especially nice bloke to me. He seems like a wealthy egomaniac who cares mostly about his own public profile. His own (often rambling) public comments seem odd to me, and some of his past comments from years gone by speak of a man who is narcissistic and greedy.

I don't think the media are unbiased - they're clearly not - but Trump's own words are what I base my opinion of him on. He seems to me to be a wealthy man accustomed to getting his own way whose opinion of others is coloured by his own privileged position. He comes across to me in the same way Gina Rinehart or Clive Palmer do; completely removed from the everyday reality most people live in by virtue of their extreme wealth.

I don't think he'll go down in history in the same way as a William Howard Taft or a Theodore Roosevelt. He'll be more like a Richard Nixon or a Bill Clinton; tarnished and tainted rather than lauded and celebrated.

Isn't it amazing that the people of America were spoon fed the agenda laden media spin, yet they saw enough reason to vote for Trump. It restored my faith in humanity. My opinion of Americans being Media driven, consumer units, has changed. Good on them for thinking at that critical time. I am not a Trump fan, but when ever I see the media turn into a frenzied fit against any particular topic, I am aware that there is manipulation involved. The media will only promote what their own handlers, owners want promoted. If a journalist did try to put a positive story out about Trump, they would be fired and that story would never be heard.

hillbilly wrote:Isn't it amazing that the people of America were spoon fed the agenda laden media spin, yet they saw enough reason to vote for Trump. It restored my faith in humanity. My opinion of Americans being Media driven, consumer units, has changed. Good on them for thinking at that critical time. I am not a Trump fan, but when ever I see the media turn into a frenzied fit against any particular topic, I am aware that there is manipulation involved. The media will only promote what their own handlers, owners want promoted. If a journalist did try to put a positive story out about Trump, they would be fired and that story would never be heard.

Exactly.

Trump has his reasons for his choices of words. He is facing an almost impossible task and has to be extremely careful in how he and his few true supporting patriots go about it.

Before the elections I read an excellent blog from the saker about how hard the task ahead would be using Putin as an example. The writer listed Putin's almost impossible hurdles that he had to overcome with extreme patience, very shrewd planning and delicate dancing through the minefields of political Kabuki. The article ended with the writer expressing much doubt Trump would manage it, "he is no Putin".

Trump is in an extremely delicate position with the media constantly lying about everything he does, practically no political support with the bought-and-paid-for establishment republicans and democrats, and a White House staff and military overloaded with Obama holdouts (remember Obama fired all the generals and officers who were genuine patriots by the hundreds).

He is forced to play Kabuki theatre until this years elections where hopefully enough 'non-politicians' get voted into office to give him the political support he needs to carry out the 'drain-the-swamp' agenda.

Yeah sure, the man's ego is over the top, but it needs to be for him to have a chance. Only a man of tremendous ego would even attempt what would be to most, an impossible task.

Simon, you're not listening to the right words, only what the media tells us he is saying. Are you aware he said he would audit the Fed? No president has ever dared to do such a thing. Kennedy got shot for going up against the Fed (see executive order 11110, signed two weeks before he was murdered).

ZeroHedge.com is reporting that former “high-level” CIA officer Kevin Shipp is warning the Deep State is “terrified” of President Trump.
Shipp says:
"They are terrified, they are terrified right now. They did not expect Trump to do what he is doing now. The reason they tried to get him even before he was elected is they knew he was uncontrollable, and they knew if he got in there, they would not be able to manipulate him, and that is exactly what’s happening.
There are some people, and there is no doubt about it, that are running scared right now…
Donald Trump is questioning the Deep State and the shadow government. He’s rocking that place left and right. The news media is terrified of that. Their editors are telling them to attack him just like they are attacking him from the inside. It’s just dirty pool because they want him taken out."

Shipp concludes: “Trump’s making tremendous progress despite tremendous resistance. They have already done a character assassination on him, and I think they could go further than that. Trump is making progress, and he has them running scared.”