The Impending Global Financial Crisis ?

[TheBlackStump]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eEV3zJbahvM

So what are your thoughts on the contents of the above youtube video re another impending GFC and/or stock/property market crash or do our politicians have it all worked out and there will be no crisis but just a temporary minor glitch in the economy before it reboots again .

This crash has been forecast for some time now and some are saying it could dwarf the Great Depression of the 1930s and it could take decades to recover from it. A lot of smart money , is said , has already opted out of the stock market in favour of less risky investments. Some are saying that share prices could drop as much as 80% and property prices could go down 50%. Interest rates will rise and many people/families will lose their houses. The various markets have experienced record growth worldwide. This can not go on forever and the markets will have correct at some point as they always do. The combined debt of the world is also at record highs. Something has to give.

Where there is crisis there is also opportunity. Smart operators are liquidating their assets now and positioning assets into safe areas and will pick up the bargains once various prices have crashed.

Could this all be the culmination of a long term plan of the global elite ? What other fallout could be expected from a combined major GFC , stock and property market crash ? can stock markets be shut down temporarily or even permanently ? is there a system in place in Australia whereby with a few keystrokes of a computer all personal bank accounts and superannuation accounts can be frozen ? if so then who authorised this and who controls it and why was it put in place ?

There is a wall of money starting to be invested into Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies by many Hedge Funds , institutions and individuals etc. Can cryptocurrency be a safe investment as it is mostly anonymous and decentralised and outside of any government control atm.

[Wolf]

There will be a crash.
In fact, there should have been a far bigger one than that which occurred several years ago.

Instead of letting the banks fail and bringing back Glass Steagall, the money makers printed more money.
But then instead of using said money to build infrastructure and invest in new businesses, the Banksters gobbled it all up and got even richer.

Thankfully it did buy time... time for the smarter world leaders (BRICS) to build an alternative to the unipolar world of the post-cold war petro-dollar.
This alternative is being completed as we speak.
Russia has taken over the petro-dollar debt of countries like Venezuela and given them interest free loans instead.

I will add more when I get time, but it would be an unwise person who did not invest at least some funds into cryptos, and physical assets like gold, silver and land (the latter only if it can be bought debt-free).

[TheBlackStump]

Forecasts of the price of physical Gold rising to US $10,000 which currently equals about AUD $13,000. Physical Platinum and Paladium would also be a good investment.

The current price of one Bitcoin is AUD $14,300 and has increased by over 1,000% since the beginning of 2017. Forecasts predict one Bitcoin to be worth about AUD $130,000 by the end of 2018 and about AUD $1.3 M by the end of 2020.

~The New World Order Currency~
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z72IutP10N8

Blockchain: the DNA of the Mark of the Beast, Artificial Intelligence
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hmvLI8KaGXo

[Wolf]

I just received this in my emails this morning.
Not my words, I copied and pasted it here:

Loose monetary policy has dumped billions of dollars of easy money into the world’s financial systems over the last eight years, pumping up a whole slew of bubbles. We are still on the upside of the business cycle, with stock markets hitting record levels it seems like on a daily basis. But if history serves as any kind of indicator, a crisis is on the horizon.

What will precipitate it? That’s the proverbial $64,000 question.
Jim Rickards has compared financial crises to an avalanche. Snow piles up becoming increasingly unstable. Eventually, it reaches the point when all it takes is one more snowflake to set off an avalanche.
In a recent column, Rickards highlights three potential “snowflakes” that could set off the next deluge.

Credit Crisis in China
Earlier this month, Mint Capital strategist Bill Blain predicted that “the great crash of 2018 is going to start in the deeper, darker depths of the credit market.” Hearing this, most Americans will immediately think of debt piling up in the US. But Rickards says China is actually in an even bigger credit bubble. He uses an anecdotal story to illustrate this point.
I was out in the countryside south of Nanjing not too long ago, visiting some of China’s famous ghost cities. I was with some Communist Party officials and provincial officials who were behind it all. Everything I saw, construction as far as the eye can see, magnificent in scope, was all empty. I’ve seen it firsthand. I turned to one of these officials and said, ‘This is all debt finance. This is all empty, so you have no revenue to pay the debt. So how are you gonna pay the debt?’ And he said, ‘Oh, we can’t. But Beijing’s going to bail us out.’ Not we hope Beijing will bail us out — but Beijing will bail us out.
“That isn’t an isolated viewpoint. It’s widespread.”
Rickards points out that Beijing has its own issues. It’s not going to be able to provide the expected bailout. The credit bubble will burst and the Chinese have no idea about how to deal with it.

Failure to Deliver Gold
A large portion of the gold market is “paper gold.” Rickards contends the paper gold market is so manipulated that we don’t even have to speculate about it anymore. It’s well documented that the whole thing rests on a very small base of physical gold.
I describe the market as an inverted period with a little bit of gold at the bottom and a big inverted pyramid of paper gold resting on top.”
Rickards explains that even though the total amount of gold in the world is growing, the amount of available gold (floating gold) to back paper transactions is actually shrinking. Meanwhile, you have bullion banks like USB selling an ounce of gold 10 times over. That means you have 10 claims for every ounce of gold. What happens when a large number of people show up and say, “I want my gold, please. “?
The custodian won’t be able to give it to them. What if a major institution wants its gold but can’t get it? That would be a shock wave. It would set off panic buying in gold, and inflation expectations — now subdued — could spiral out of control.”

Geopolitical Shock
We’ve been saying geopolitical risk is the new normal. The focus has primarily been on tensions between the US and North Korea in recent months. But it’s gotten to the point where people just kind of shrug when Pres. Trump and Kim Jong Un start blustering at each other.

Earlier this week, the North Koreans launched another ICBM. Some reports say Kim Jong Un can now target anyplace in the US. It hardly registered as a blip in the financial markets. As we get used to living with a certain level of uncertainty and turmoil, it becomes normal – like background noise. But as Rickards points out, that doesn’t mean the risk suddenly ceases to exist. Things could easily spin out of control.
When a rogue North Korea builds a nuclear program capable of targeting the world’s sole superpower, that’s a snowflake. When China asserts territorial dominion over the South China Sea that pits it against key US allies, that’s a snowflake. When Saudi Arabia is roiled by internal strife and seems on a collision course with Iran throughout the entire Middle East, that’s a snowflake.”
Which Snowflake?

So, which snowflake will trigger the avalanche? Nobody knows. It’s impossible to predict exactly which snowflake will be the last snowflake – the one that sets the avalanche in motion. Most snowflakes fall harmlessly, but as Rickards says, they ultimately make the avalanche worse by building up the snowpack.
The way to think about it is that the triggering snowflake might not look much different from the harmless snowflake that preceded it. It’s just that it hit the system at the wrong time, at the wrong place. To switch metaphors, it’s like the straw that breaks the camel’s back. You can’t tell in advance which straw will trigger the collapse. It only becomes obvious afterward. But that doesn’t mean you can’t have a good idea when the threat can no longer be ignored. The system is getting more and more unstable, and it might not take that much to trigger the avalanche.”

[hillbilly]

The RealEstae market seriously needs a reset. A Reset could be a war. A war could be a good thing. It would close all borders, increase manufacturing, expose the evil in politics, provide a cleansing of that evil. There could be all manner of evil exposed in other areas and industry. Treason, conspiracy, lies and deception, you name it.
Why, they could be doing such things right now.
A lady I know is a bit of a prepper, and she has been calling a financial crisis since 2005. But it keeps being controlled.

[TheBlackStump]

Hi hillbilly

Yep the R/E market certainly needs a reset for the sake of our children being able to have a chance to buy their own home. There is no intergenerational equity in place.The younger generation are the collateral damage of the R/E boom that has flourished under various government policies since the last GFC.

Finacial prepping now is a wise move b/c when the s#@t hits the fan every man and his dog are going to be scrambling to get out of the room at the same time and very few will make it out of the only door in time.


Hi Wolf

I also get Jim Rickards informative newsletters. Anyone interesting in subscribing to Jim Rickards just google The Daily Reckoning Australia or Strategic Intelligence. Port Phillip Publishing is another good one to give unbiased independent advice.

[Wolf]

The RealEstae market seriously needs a reset. A Reset could be a war. A war could be a good thing. It would close all borders, increase manufacturing, expose the evil in politics, provide a cleansing of that evil. There could be all manner of evil exposed in other areas and industry. Treason, conspiracy, lies and deception, you name it.
Why, they could be doing such things right now.
A lady I know is a bit of a prepper, and she has been calling a financial crisis since 2005. But it keeps being controlled.

Yeah we sold our house in 2005 for a fair bit less than what we originally asked for because we thought a collapse was on the cards. (Still made a tidy profit but did not buy again expecting a real estate pop.)

No harm in prepping. I see it as investing in food. If you buy long lasting food in bulk you save a lot of money down the track because just like commodities (except gold and silver controlled by paper trading) it only ever increases in price.

[TheBlackStump]

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin- ... -clif-high


Bitcoin Price Will Triple Gold in 2018, Silver Achieves Parity With Gold: Clif High

Banks are going to get into big trouble later this year which is going to expose a gigantic derivative bust, silver has a good future ahead and Bitcoin price would triple the price of an ounce of gold - which is expected to reach $4,800 - by March next year, according to the latest data sets from Clif High.

Based on this estimate, one Bitcoin could be worth more than $13,000 by then, he says in the interview he recently had with Greg Hunter.

Banks’ troubles
Clif High, who has gradually become a known name for the projection from his Web bots, says his data shows that the derivative that some banks would soon experience would be regional troubles rather than a global bust.

He says in the video:

“It would be a large failure, say, in a northern Italian bank then the derivative associated with that bank ripples over to Deutsche Bank and maybe they are able to contain it a little bit and so everybody breathes a sigh of relief. Then it breaks out in Texas and a bunch of regional banks in Texas shuts down and there is pressure on some fracking whales and they get it contained with a little bit of credit infusion from somewhere else. Then it spreads to California and up to Asia and the next thing you know it is back in Europe. So we’ll be fighting this basically derivative disease as it pops up here and there. That’s going to be the modus operandi for the banks for the rest of this year.”

“He hints that a lot of people are going to get caught up in the situation when some of these banks go down because they won’t have access to their cash. Also, some of these banks are not likely to recover from the “nasty situation.”

Silver’s going to the moon
He didn’t say if there would be a correlation between the failure of banks and the projected rise in the price of silver. However, he notes that for a number of years, silver is going to be an increasingly key component of the increasing complex hyper-technologies. This will be as a result of the escalation in the actual growth rate of emotional attachment to silver between this year - when the metal is expected to break out and create a shift in its price manipulation - and 2022.

They will try to suppress it to contain it in the first instance, he adds, but they won’t be able to contain the next breakout coming towards the end of the year (October) because of what would be coming out as relative to technology by the time.

“The situation will encourage rampant hoarding in silver in 2018 and 2019 in many western countries and its price will escalate rapidly towards achieving parity with gold and become too expensive to be used as money. For gold, he says the next number according to his data sets is $4800 per ounce with a projected timeline of March 2018.”

Bitcoin won’t explode until 2019
If what Clif High, who is considered quite accurate with his predictions about Bitcoin, says about the digital currency is anything to go by, then we should see a $13,000+ Bitcoin by March 2018.

Speaking of the price of gold in the interview with Hunter, High says an ounce of gold would reach $4800 net by March to drop down by about $300. He adds:

“The data shows that when it’s dropped to that point, just curiously, it happens to match for a brief period of time exactly one-third of the price of Bitcoin when gold does that deepen and it’s back up again.”

That gives us about a price range of between $13,000 and $14,000.

“Bitcoin is simply escalating. It doesn’t explode until 2019,” he adds with a submission that at some point, there will be one Bitcoin available for every thousand ounces of gold.

[TheBlackStump]

Todays current prices

Bitcoin BTC AUD $15549.852645

Australian Dollars US Dollars
Ask Bid Ask Bid
Gold $1,689.03 $1,681.02 $1,285.35 $1,279.60
Silver $21.76 $21.37 $16.56 $16.27
Platinum $1,252.96 $1,222.41 $953.50 $930.50
Palladium $1,360.64 $1,331.38 $1,035.45 $1,013.45

[Wolf]

Bitcoin at $40000 by August?
This fellows web-bot has been extremely accurate with its predictions so far...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obl2dWUVwz0

[TheBlackStump]

Bitcoin at $40000 by August?
This fellows web-bot has been extremely accurate with its predictions so far...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obl2dWUVwz0

That is USD $40,000 = AUD $50,000 + approx depending on exchange rate at the time. Some of the other coins , if you are lucky enough to pick the right ones will have a much higher % increase than BTC.

Physical Silver may also be a good investment over the next few years . He predicts Silver will achieve parity with the price of Gold so based on todays prices that is an increase of 10,000% approx.

There is another guy who calls himself masterluc who I have been following for a while and he is really good with his BTC predictions over time also. Google his name to read articles about him.

https://www.btcethereum.com/blog/2017/0 ... this-year/

[hillbilly]

I must just be old fashioned, but I cannot get the Bitcoin idea. I cant see how it is based on anything of actual value like Gold. Silver price rise has been forecast for over 15 years. We are still waiting. Possibly, some investors had died while waiting.

[Simon M]

I must just be old fashioned, but I cannot get the Bitcoin idea. I cant see how it is based on anything of actual value like Gold. Silver price rise has been forecast for over 15 years. We are still waiting. Possibly, some investors had died while waiting.

You're not alone - bitcoin just seems so untrustworthy and 'made up' to me. I think it's some kind of fad or something, and unless the whole economic situation changes drastically on a worldwide scale, I don't see how it could replace any existing currency.

It's like 'the cloud' - just put all your info on 'the cloud' they'll tell you. I'm not about to trust anything really personal to a server I don't own in an unknown location that unknown people can access without my authorisation or knowledge. I know I'm old fashioned, but I don't care. People now are way too comfortable with the impersonal ways their personal information is dispersed and used.

[TheBlackStump]

Todays current prices

Bitcoin BTC AUD $15549.852645

Australian Dollars US Dollars
Ask Bid Ask Bid
Gold $1,689.03 $1,681.02 $1,285.35 $1,279.60
Silver $21.76 $21.37 $16.56 $16.27
Platinum $1,252.96 $1,222.41 $953.50 $930.50
Palladium $1,360.64 $1,331.38 $1,035.45 $1,013.45

The price of 1 bitcoin has rocketed AUD $1,950 approx in the last 3 days .

1
Bitcoin BTC
$195,782,530,863 17450.056800 AUD

[Wolf]

I must just be old fashioned, but I cannot get the Bitcoin idea. I cant see how it is based on anything of actual value like Gold. Silver price rise has been forecast for over 15 years. We are still waiting. Possibly, some investors had died while waiting.

You're not alone - bitcoin just seems so untrustworthy and 'made up' to me. I think it's some kind of fad or something, and unless the whole economic situation changes drastically on a worldwide scale, I don't see how it could replace any existing currency.

It's like 'the cloud' - just put all your info on 'the cloud' they'll tell you. I'm not about to trust anything really personal to a server I don't own in an unknown location that unknown people can access without my authorisation or knowledge. I know I'm old fashioned, but I don't care. People now are way too comfortable with the impersonal ways their personal information is dispersed and used.

The thing is, it cannot be as easily manipulated as gold or silver, which is manipulated using paper trading.
Yes, bitcoin is 'virtual', but so is fiat.

The 'big thing' about bitcoin is not so much that it is a store of wealth and a currency in itself, the BIG thing is the blockchain itself.

Blockchain tech is the most societal changing thing to happen since the internet itself. It is the 'hope for humanity' that could potentially simply erase much of the corruption by bypassing the long-held power structure of the Central Banksters.

[Wolf]

If you can watch it.... https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/4115 ... ng-system/

I finally got it to work by being very persistent and trying different browsers over and over.

[TheBlackStump]

Todays current prices

Bitcoin BTC AUD $15549.852645

Australian Dollars US Dollars
Ask Bid Ask Bid
Gold $1,689.03 $1,681.02 $1,285.35 $1,279.60
Silver $21.76 $21.37 $16.56 $16.27
Platinum $1,252.96 $1,222.41 $953.50 $930.50
Palladium $1,360.64 $1,331.38 $1,035.45 $1,013.45

The price of 1 bitcoin has rocketed AUD $1,950 approx in the last 3 days .

1
Bitcoin BTC
$195,782,530,863 17450.056800 AUD

The price of 1BTC is going to the moon. Up over AUD $3,000 since yesterday.

1
Bitcoin BTC
$280,128,511,559 20559.260078 AUD

[TheBlackStump]

I must just be old fashioned, but I cannot get the Bitcoin idea. I cant see how it is based on anything of actual value like Gold. Silver price rise has been forecast for over 15 years. We are still waiting. Possibly, some investors had died while waiting.

You're not alone - bitcoin just seems so untrustworthy and 'made up' to me. I think it's some kind of fad or something, and unless the whole economic situation changes drastically on a worldwide scale, I don't see how it could replace any existing currency.

It's like 'the cloud' - just put all your info on 'the cloud' they'll tell you. I'm not about to trust anything really personal to a server I don't own in an unknown location that unknown people can access without my authorisation or knowledge. I know I'm old fashioned, but I don't care. People now are way too comfortable with the impersonal ways their personal information is dispersed and used.

Hi hillbilly and Simon M

I am 60 but am learning the predicted future..........

There are a different ways of storing BTC and other cryptos. These are online wallets stored on your computer or phone or with a crypto exchange or a crypto trading platform or best/safest option is a BTC/crypto USB hardware wallet. You can even store your various passwords on these USBs

The safest way to store BTC/cryptocurrency is on a specially designed USB hardware wallet called Trezor or another make is called Nano S. So to put it simply you personally hold the USB and you are your own bank. Your BTC/crypto is not stored online it is kept solely in the special USB. You are totally responsible for the safety of the USB. If you lose the USB or it is damaged you have a 24 word recovery seed/phrase to recover your BTC/cryptocurrency. You keep 2 or more backup copies of your recovery seed/phrase in seperate safe places. Keep backups in a place that is heatproof,waterproof,acidproof and crushproof. If the USB was stolen then they are hack proof so unless the thief knows your pin # then they can not access your crypto. You can even use the USBs safely on a compromised computer as there are no key strokes required on the computer when accessing or using the connected USB to make transactions. Any commands are made on the USB itself.

Big walls of smart , legal money are starting to invest into the BTC/crypto space. Some 300 hedge funds alone and also banks , large corporations , wealthy individuals etc are now invested but this is just the start of things as more and more people become aware of BTC/cryptocurrency and it become more mainstream.

http://coincap.io/ << for live crypto prices. Click on USD icon at top l/h side of page and select AUD prices.

A new asset class has been born . The ATO now officially recognises BTC/cryptocurrency as a digital asset for a couple of years now. If you cash in your BTC you have to declare and pay tax on any profit you made from BTC/CRYPTO since tIme of purchase of BTC. In Australia some people are now selling their homes for BTC only. If you buy a house using BTC then your BTC is not taxable b/c you are simply exchanging one asset for another asset. If you have an investment property you want to sell for BTC then the BTC you receive from the sale is not subject to capital gains tax b/c again you are simply swapping one digital asset for the house which is another asset. Probably will not be long before you can buy a motor vehilcle etc with BTC and the same rule applies you are swapping one asset for another. 500 BTC ATMs are just about to be installed at various locations around Australia.

The demand for silver is going to increase because silver will be used in new and emerging HYPER TECHNOLOGIES in
various fields such as medical. Another field it will be used in is anti gravity technology products. Initially we are going to see anti gravity hoverboards and it will grow from there. There will be so many potential uses for anti gravity . Remember the Jetsons. Silver is very important to the new technologies as it is reportedly the only metal with 2 stable isotopes , no other metal is suitable for use in these new hypertechnologies.

Cheers

[TheBlackStump]

At time of writing 1 Bitcoin is now worth AUD $25,550 which is 25% increase in value in last 9 days.

[Shazzoir]

Whether we truly are at the 'end of days' (if you're religious in that way), or whether we are looking down the barrel of a world torn apart by nuclear war, I am pretty sure all the money, electronically stored or cash-wise, gold, silver, gems, whatever item of value that once held any power, may be worthless.

All of this technology will be lost along with our inability to keep electrical power going.

If there are EMPs employed in any wide-reaching global manner, say goodbye to electrical items of many kinds.

If we ever do get that far down the track, and mankind's tech is no longer worth anything, it's the skills of survival people have that will dictate the future.

If you can hunt, fish, kill, dress, cook and consume what you catch, you will be better off than the millions who cannot.

Your skills and ability to feed others will be the new currency. Money and 'things' won't matter if you are hungry.

There are plenty of books out there and I personally know of two who have a 'Bug Out' plan in place if things should come to this. Living in a city will be the worst place to be. Get out to the rural areas where you stand a chance is their motto. I tend to believe that this is not such an unwise suggestion if such a thing happens. Survival, your next meal, and shelter and water will be all that matters.

Shazz

[Wolf]

Yep, anyone without a 'bug-out plan' is crazy.

If you don't ever need to use it, great... nothing lost except some time and fun exploring and learning basic skills.

If you ever needed it and did not plan you would kick yourself.

[Wolf]

There is circumstantial evidence that Bitcoin was in reality created by AI in order to fund itself. Some predict mining electricity demand will exceed global resources by 2030, even 2020!

That is an enormous amount of power going into computers. AI/singularity is here already?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=guNrsaOZrgo

(I think Stumps posted this video in an other thread? Interestingly although I watched it yesterday I cannot find it in my browser history nor my youtube history... Sophia?)

[TheBlackStump]

Hi Wolf

All of the electricty needed to run these computers is being NATURALLY drawn from the earth. These facilities are built on intersection points of the earths LEY or ENERGY LINES.

They are saying what ancient knowledge/technology has been discovered in Antarctica can/will supply electrical power to the entire southern hemishpere at some point in the future.

[Wolf]

"Bitcoin was created in order to motivate humans to build the machinery..."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a-89IYv0mfU

[Wolf]

Hi Wolf

All of the electricty needed to run these computers is being NATURALLY drawn from the earth. These facilities are built on intersection points of the earths LEY or ENERGY LINES.

They are saying what ancient knowledge/technology has been discovered in Antarctica can/will supply electrical power to the entire southern hemishpere at some point in the future.

Nothing would surprise me anymore. Tesla claimed he could supply electricity free to everyone on the planet via the planet itself.

[TheBlackStump]

Here is another vid which explains stuff AI a bit more.

Live in Las Vegas with Quinn Michaels

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YSn7Iomisyc

[TheBlackStump]

Here is another vid which explains stuff AI a bit more.

Live in Las Vegas with Quinn Michaels

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YSn7Iomisyc

I just made the cut off to buy into the ICO for Singularity.NET

[Wolf]

Was bitcoin created by an artificial intelligence to rule the world?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gK2jkkB2yyc

[Wolf]

Was bitcoin created by an artificial intelligence to rule the world?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gK2jkkB2yyc

From the comments, to give the other side of this argument...
"This is a bunch of nonsense. No one knows who Satoshi Nakamoto is, but people definitley emailed with him. And the people that know him, that were on a crypto enthusiast mailing list, said that Satoshi wasn't the best programmer and that he needed a lot of help.

Satoshi wrote the whitepaper but programming the code was done by a team of highly skilled enthusiasts like Gavin Andresen.

Also, the code definitely wasn't perfect. Somewhere in the beginning, someone exploited a bug and created billions of bitcoins in a single transaction out of nothing. The bug was fixed, the network forked and continued the blockchain while the fake coins were left behind.

Then there was the transaction malleability bug which also had to be fixed and I'm sure there were other bugs that I'm not aware of.

And last but not least, Satoshi Nakamoto stopped communicating after Gavin Andresen had emailed him and told him the CIA had invited Gavin to come by and have a talk about Bitcoin. I imagine that scared Satoshi and he was smart enough to disappear. History hasn't always been kind to people who come up with an amazing invention that threathens the powers that be."

[Wolf]

The Economist predicted Bitcoin would be implemented by 2018... in 1998!
For the sake of the article they called it The Phoenix...

"COVER: “GET READY FOR A WORLD CURRENCY”
Title of article: Get Ready for the Phoenix
Source: Economist; 01/9/88, Vol. 306, pp 9-10
THIRTY years from now, Americans, Japanese, Europeans, and people in many other rich countries, and some relatively poor ones will probably be paying for their shopping with the same currency. Prices will be quoted not in dollars, yen or D-marks but in, let’s say, the phoenix. The phoenix will be favoured by companies and shoppers because it will be more convenient than today’s national currencies, which by then will seem a quaint cause of much disruption to economic life in the last twentieth century.
–
At the beginning of 1988 this appears an outlandish prediction. Proposals for eventual monetary union proliferated five and ten years ago, but they hardly envisaged the setbacks of 1987. The governments of the big economies tried to move an inch or two towards a more managed system of exchange rates – a logical preliminary, it might seem, to radical monetary reform. For lack of co-operation in their underlying economic policies they bungled it horribly, and provoked the rise in interest rates that brought on the stock market crash of October. These events have chastened exchange-rate reformers. The market crash taught them that the pretence of policy co-operation can be worse than nothing, and that until real co-operation is feasible (i.e., until governments surrender some economic sovereignty) further attempts to peg currencies will flounder.
…
The new world economy
The biggest change in the world economy since the early 1970’s is that flows of money have replaced trade in goods as the force that drives exchange rates. as a result of the relentless integration of the world’s financial markets, differences in national economic policies can disturb interest rates (or expectations of future interest rates) only slightly, yet still call forth huge transfers of financial assets from one country to another. These transfers swamp the flow of trade revenues in their effect on the demand and supply for different currencies, and hence in their effect on exchange rates. As telecommunications technology continues to advance, these transactions will be cheaper and faster still. With unco-ordinated economic policies, currencies can get only more volatile.
….
In all these ways national economic boundaries are slowly dissolving. As the trend continues, the appeal of a currency union across at least the main industrial countries will seem irresistible to everybody except foreign-exchange traders and governments. In the phoenix zone, economic adjustment to shifts in relative prices would happen smoothly and automatically, rather as it does today between different regions within large economies (a brief on pages 74-75 explains how.) The absence of all currency risk would spur trade, investment and employment.
–
The phoenix zone would impose tight constraints on national governments. There would be no such thing, for instance, as a national monetary policy. The world phoenix supply would be fixed by a new central bank, descended perhaps from the IMF. The world inflation rate – and hence, within narrow margins, each national inflation rate- would be in its charge. Each country could use taxes and public spending to offset temporary falls in demand, but it would have to borrow rather than print money to finance its budget deficit. With no recourse to the inflation tax, governments and their creditors would be forced to judge their borrowing and lending plans more carefully than they do today. This means a big loss of economic sovereignty, but the trends that make the phoenix so appealing are taking that sovereignty away in any case. Even in a world of more-or-less floating exchange rates, individual governments have seen their policy independence checked by an unfriendly outside world.
–
As the next century approaches, the natural forces that are pushing the world towards economic integration will offer governments a broad choice. They can go with the flow, or they can build barricades. Preparing the way for the phoenix will mean fewer pretended agreements on policy and more real ones. It will mean allowing and then actively promoting the private-sector use of an international money alongside existing national monies. That would let people vote with their wallets for the eventual move to full currency union. The phoenix would probably start as a cocktail of national currencies, just as the Special Drawing Right is today. In time, though, its value against national currencies would cease to matter, because people would choose it for its convenience and the stability of its purchasing power.
…..
The alternative – to preserve policymaking autonomy- would involve a new proliferation of truly draconian controls on trade and capital flows. This course offers governments a splendid time. They could manage exchange-rate movements, deploy monetary and fiscal policy without inhibition, and tackle the resulting bursts of inflation with prices and incomes polices. It is a growth-crippling prospect. Pencil in the phoenix for around 2018, and welcome it when it comes."